ANALISIS PENGARUH PENDUDUK USIA PRODUKTIF DAN INDEKS PEMBANGUNAN MANUSIA (IPM) TERHADAP PDRB PER KAPITA PROVINSI RIAU
Abstract
This research examines the relationship between the Working Age Population, Human Development Index (HDI) and real GDP Per Capita in Riau Province for the periode between 2015Q1 and 2019Q4 by using Descriptive Analysis, Multiple Linear Regression (Ordinary Least Square), Error Correction Model (ECM), and Granger Causality Test Method. The long-run and the short run model confirm the long-run and short-run relationship between the Working Age Population, Human Development Index (HDI) and real GDP Per Capita, however Granger Causality Test shows a one-way causality running from Human Development Index (HDI) to real GDP Per Capita and to Working Age Population. The Working Age Population has a positive and significant impact on the real GDP Per Capita wether in the long-run or the short-run. Meanwhile the Human Development Index (HDI) has a negative and significant relationship on the real GDP Per Capita in the long-run and in the short-run. Nevertheless, the shock in Working Age Population and Human Development Index (HDI) has a minimum impact on the real GDP Per Capita as shown by the error correction term (ECT) in ECM. Hence Riau Province needs to focus in developing policies to prepare the business sector in absorbing the working age population, in order to increase the working age population’s productivity and their contribution in real GDP Per Capita.
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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.31258/pekbis.14.1.10-17
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